October 13, 2008 - 2:39pm
News

New poll shows Gov. Jim Douglas leads by 20 points

Gov. Jim Douglas (R-Middlebury) holds a 20 percentage-point lead over his nearest re-election opponent, the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports found, but all three campaigns immediately called the poll's results into question.

The poll, which had to be conducted several times due to errors in the process, found Douglas (R-Middlebury) winning 45 percent support. Independent Anthony Pollina came in second with 25 percent, and House Speaker Gaye Symington (D-Jericho) rounded out the group winning the support of 20 percent of those polled.

The poll, however, becomes less clear when "leaners" are included. With an additional 8 percent support from "leaners," Douglas could bring his total to 53 percent support - enough to keep the governor's office without the state legislature having to make the final choice. Symington could pick up another 19 percent from "leaners," bringing her total support 39 percent.

Rasmussen asked voters who they would support "if it comes down to a choice between Douglas and Symington," and Pollina kept only 4 percent of his support.

Pollina has made no mention of ending the race anytime soon.

Meg Brook, Pollina's campaign manager said that the poll results that tabulate "leaners" are inaccurate. "That's like asking: ‘If the choice is between Pollina and Symington, how many votes would Douglas get?'" she told PolitickerVT.com.

The last time a gubernatorial poll was conducted by WCAX, Pollina captured 7 percent of the vote.

Douglas' campaign manager Dennise Casey said that internal polls showed the governor doing better than the Rassmussen Report found.

"The governor has consistently underperformed in public polls," she said. "This has been the case every year. We are confident the governor will be over 50 percent." In WCAX's poll from last month, Douglas had polled around 48 percent.

Meanwhile, the Symington campaign rejected the poll results completely, saying it had no credibility.

"In all polls when leaners are added to the initial horse-race question, everyone's numbers rise," the Symington campaign said in a statement Friday. "The fact that Anthony Pollina drops 21 points when you include leaners invalidates all of the data in the poll. We are in good company. The Associated Press, as a policy, does not report on Rasmussen polls because of doubts about their approach."

WCAX's poll from September found that Symington had the support of 33 percent of voters.

Under Vermont laws, a candidate must receive at least 50 percent of the vote to become governor, or the vote goes to the legislature.

The Rasmussen poll also included the favorability ratings of Symington and Douglas, but not Pollina. Douglas earned a favorability rating of a little more than 60 percent-32 percent have a "very favorable" impression, while 29 percent hold a "somewhat favorable" view. The governor has a 23 percent "somewhat unfavorable" and a 13 percent "very unfavorable" rating. Three percent of voters remain uncertain.

The House Speaker split about even in her favorability ratings: 46 percent of Vermonters said they had a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" view of the candidate, while 23 percent rated her as "somewhat unfavorable" and 25 percent rated Symington as "very unfavorable." Six percent of voters were uncertain in their opinion of Symington.

The poll was conducted in early October among 500 eligible voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percent.

MEGAN STEWART is a Politicker.com Reporter and can be reached via email at megan.stewart@politicker.com.

Comments

thanh99


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10/25/08 11:02 am

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10/25/08 2:03 am

Thanks you very good; thanks


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10/18/08 1:10 pm

Despite the Pundits Pollina has support.


Pollina resonates well with real Vermonters that is why Symington should get out the way and let Pollina take on Doesless one on one...Pollina is the best person to lead Vermont out of the economic downturn.

10/13/08 4:13 pm

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